In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back 8 weeks, SurveyUSA has never shown the Minnesota Marriage Amendment being defeated. Until today.
ABC Affiliate, KSTP, Minneapolis
Last night, Public Policy Polling released polling numbers showing that 52% of Minnesotans opposed the amendment with 45% in support.
Tonight, KSTP/SurveyUSA release their final poll before the election and the NO side leads with 48% of voters opposed to amending the constitution to limit the rights of committed same-sex couples.
That’s right: A second independent poll has found that Minnesotans oppose amending the constitution to limit the rights of a subset of citizens.
With that said, it’s going to be nail-biting close. According to KSTP:
The margin is small, and could just be statistical noise, but at the wire, SurveyUSA has “No” at 48%, “Yes” at 47%, well within the survey’s possible sources of error, but significant enough to warrant a mention. In SurveyUSA’s two most recent polls, Yes led No by a single point. Now the dress shoe is on the other foot, with No leading Yes by a single point.
With less than 48 hours until Minnesota polls close, we can’t let up. If you can help with get-out-the-vote efforts, please sign up here.
Minnesota, this is going to be close. EVERY single vote is going to matter in this election. Help make history by saying NO on Tuesday!
The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.
Note: For additional information, check out the detailed breakdown of the poll.
Our final Minnesota poll finds 45% of voters support the amendment to ban gay marriage, 52% of voters oppose it
Source: Public Policy Polling Tweet
There’s no additional detail posted on the Public Policy Polling site, however, I wanted to share this tweet immediately. As soon as the details of the poll are posted, I’ll share via the blog.
Last month’s poll from PPP showed that 49% of Minnesotans opposed amending the Minnesota constitution to limit the freedom of marriage with 46% of Minnesotans supporting it. Tonight’s numbers reflect a trend we’ve been seeing over the past year; the support for equality continues to increase here in the land of 10,000 lakes!
Here’s the actual tweet from Public Policy Polling:
With just days before polls open, Minnesota, it’s going to be close! We need EVERY single person to show up on Tuesday to ensure we make these numbers come true.
The momentum is in our favor; we can be the first state to defeat one of these amendments! But the only way we’ll do that is if each of us continues to talk about this amendment, tell our stories and encourage Vote No supporters to show up at the polls!
See you Tuesday!
Some good news for my friends in Washington State tonight: The latest poll from Public Policy Polling shows that the majority of Washington supports equality.
Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .54%
Illegal ………………… .40%
Not sure …………….. . 5%
Even with the margin of error, it appears that Washington residents will reaffirm a decision made earlier this year to legalize same-sex marriage in the state.
Of course, now is not the time to let up! With 3 days to go, all states facing amendment battles on marriage must ensure a strong get out the vote effort.
To my friends in Washington State, good luck!!
Way back in June, I shared an inspiring video about the impact each of us has in telling our story. 67% of voters are more likely to vote against this mean-spirited amendment if they’ve heard from someone they know.
If you have any doubt, just take a look at the breakdown of numbers from the recently completed Star Tribune poll:
Do you have family members or friends who are gay or lesbian?
KNOW GAY OR LESBIAN?
Just knowing someone that is gay or lesbian has a huge influence on how someone chooses to vote on this amendment! Then add in the telling of personal stories and making real connections with fellow Minnesotans and you can see why Minnesota has a real chance at defeating this thing!
So with 6 days to go, take action now. Get out there. Tell your stories. Volunteer with the campaign. Do whatever you can to make real, personal connections between now and election day. Who knows, your personal connection could make the difference between whether or not this mean-spirited amendment is defeated!
Just over a month ago, I blogged, “Breaking: Amendment may not have enough support to pass!” as the Star Tribune had just released the results of polling they conducted in September around the marriage amendment. At that time, this is what the numbers looked like:
49% Approve | 47% Oppose | 4% Undecided
Fast forward a month later, and the latest Star Tribune’s latest poll had this to say:
48% Approve | 47% Oppose | 5% Undecided
Support for the amendment has continues to decline as more Minnesotans tell their personal stories and make personal connections with voters. However, it’s clear that Minnesota’s churches are still playing a key role in keeping support higher:
The sampling also found that Minnesota’s faith leaders are enormously influential.
Fully 70 percent of supporters say their religious leader helped inform their decision on the question; 26 percent say their faith leader had little or no impact.
Of course, with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, this vote could go either way. With that said, if we could move more undecided voters to our side in the last days, we could be the first state to defeat one of these measures!
Don’t stop talking to friends and telling your story to neighbors, relatives, fellow church goers… YOU are making a difference every single day!
While it is certainly not yet time to break out the champagne, the latest polling numbers from Public Policy Polling are trending in the Vote NO direction. In numbers released yesterday, PPP shows that 49% of voters are opposed to amending the Minnesota state constitution to limit the rights of committed same-sex couples. This is a 2% increase in amendment opposition since PPP conducted their last poll in September.
Amendment supporters still have a very strong showing with 46% of likely voters in Minnesota set to vote yes to limit the freedom to marry (the October poll shows a decrease in support of two percentage points). 5% of voters are still undecided; this is unchanged from the September poll.
With all of that said, we know that amendment support has always been underrepresented in pre-polling. Plus, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%, we still have work to do. Here are three quick ideas on how you can help maintain our Vote NO momentum:
- Update your Facebook cover graphic to let your friends kNOw why defeating this amendment is important to you
- Sign up to call the 49% of voters that are on our side to remind them the importance of getting out to vote on election day
- Tell your story one more time. If we defeat this amendment, it will because of YOU
With less than 30 days to go, please help make a difference today!
Note: This latest PPP survey was conducted between October 5-8 with 937 respondents. For the full report, click here.
On a day when Minnesotans around the state are gathering for One Day United parties to continue the conversation and raise funds to defeat the mean-spirited marriage amendment, the Star Tribune has provided a much-needed boost of hope into the discussion.
This morning, the Tribune published a poll they conducted from September 17-19. In it, amendment supporters still lead opponents by 2 percentage points, however, they fall short of the needed majority to pass the amendment by ONE small percentage point.
But let’s not break out the bubbly quite yet. There are still 4% of respondents who are undecided and the poll has a +/-3.5 margin of sampling error. If other states are any indication, “yes” voters are usually under-represented in polling by several percentage points.
Not only that, but the other side hasn’t started to bombard the airwaves and internet with their scare tactics – a strategy that has proven effective in every single state where these amendments have passed.
Today’s polling should call each and every single one of us to take action. We are so very close and the numbers continue to move in our favor. Whether you can donate some time calling potential voters, talk to coworkers and friends about why you’re voting no or put a yard sign up to proclaim your stance – all of these things are helping.
With defeat of this anti-marriage amendment so close, we cannot afford to stop now. Thank you to everyone that has stood One Day United today. May we continue to encourage the conversation right up until election day.
Together, we can defeat this. Stand with me, Minnesota and let’s tell the world that we are voting NO!
Note: For detailed polling breakdown data, check out this link.
That’s the headline of a recent Public Policy Polling poll on the Minnesota marriage amendment. According to PPP:
PPP’s newest poll on the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in Minnesota finds it virtually tied, with 48% of voters supporting the ban to 47% who oppose it. In January we found 48/44 support for the ban, while in June we found 49/43 opposition. It looks like a toss up.
While support for the amendment has remained fairly consistent, opposition continues to rise. However, it is still important to note that at no point in polling has opposition surpassed support.
PPP provides the following breakdown of support/opposition:
Women (52/41), Democrats (78/16), and voters under 45 (50/45) all oppose the ban. Men (55/41), Republicans (80/17), independents (51/42), and seniors (53/40) all support it in greater numbers though.
Additionally, the poll finds that 5% of voters are still unsure. With a +/- 3.4% margin, the amendment race continues to be tight, at least from a polling perspective.
For additional content around polling, check out the following blog posts:
- Marriage amendment poised to pass (9/11/2012)
- Undecided voters (9/6/2012)
- Amendment support strong with various groups of voters (8/7/2012)
- Majority of Minnesotans voting for inequality? (7/31/2012)
- Minnesota marriage amendment to pass? (7/26/2012)
Yesterday’s polling numbers were a bit of sad news showing that, if we were to vote today, the mean-spirited marriage amendment would pass.
If you were left wondering, “Who is going to vote for this thing?” here is your answer. We need to shake our mindset that it’s “just religious people” or that it’s “just older Minnesotans” or it’s “just republicans” voting for the amendment. Minnesotans from all walks of life are saying “yes” and the breakdown of polling numbers show that as well.
So, am I saying it’s a lost cause? Absolutely not. It highlights, even more, why we need to have the tough conversations with family, friends and co-workers. I guarantee you that the people in this video know LGBTA people. Have those LGBTA friends, neighbors, co-workers, family members… talked about this amendment? Have they shared their personal story to help the folks in this video understand the far-reaching impacts of this amendment?
If we’re not having the conversations, if we’re not volunteering our time, if we’re not telling our stories, we will lose this fight. The polling already tells us that.
So what are we going to do about it? Come on Minnesota, I know we’re better than this!
Note: There is an entire series of “vote yes” commercials just like this one. I posted another one in May of this year and will continue to share so that each of us understands what the yes side looks like. It’s a diverse group of people and we need to remember that, so that we tell our stories and engage all people, not just those that we think will vote yes.
Sharing some sad news tonight: Polling numbers released yesterday show the mean-spirited marriage amendment passing. According to the latest poll released by KSTP/SurveyUSA, the amendment has the needed 50 percent support to pass. Not only that, but historically polling under-represents the number of “yes” voters, so this number is likely to be higher come election day.
With that said, 43 percent of those polled oppose the amendment and another 8 percent of voters are undecided. Compared to a poll released in July from KSTP/SurveyUSA, opposition to the amendment has increased by six percentage points while support has declined by two.
I truly believe that increased opposition is due to all of the hard work volunteers are putting in across this state. Whether you participated in National Night Out, volunteered at the State Fair, canvassed your neighborhood, called voters or had conversations on Facebook or at work, each of us is driving change.
With eight weeks to go until the election, we still have a lot of work to do. I know that many folks are getting tired and are frustrated with today’s results, but we should find motivation in the fact that these numbers continue to shift in a positive direction. Opposition to this mean-spirited amendment continues to grow; we can’t let up now. We must continue to have conversations and help educate voters.
With your help, we will defeat this thing. Let’s show the world that Minnesota says NO to writing discrimination into our constitution. Stand with me and proudly say, “Vote NO!”
Note: The KSTP/SurveyUSA poll has a Margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percent.
Star Tribune commentary that proclaims, “Amendment foes take political blue ribbon.” According to Lori Sturdevant:
When scoring political potency at the State Fair, clusters are good. Queues are better. Attracting both, even when there’s no candidate to grip and greet, is blue-ribbon politicking.
Minnesotans United for All Families takes this year’s prize. Its orange-roofed “Vote No” booth looked to me like the 2012 fair’s political epicenter.
Sturdevant goes on to write about the other side:
The other side of the amendment, urging a “yes” vote on a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage — is also represented with a booth further up Cooper Street…
Compared with them, the orange Vote No booth is a beehive of activity. Its T-shirts and orange fans are among the fair’s hot items. Minnesotans United spokeswoman Kate Brickman said they ran out of the supply they expected to last all fair long by the end of its first weekend.
In concluding, Sturdevant writes that the strong showing bodes well for the Vote No side, but it’s still no guarantee come election day. Voters may be less likely to share their support of the amendment outside of the voting booth. With that said:
…my fair measurement tells me that the marriage amendment will be a prominent and maybe the dominant theme in Minnesota’s 2012 campaign. And that the Vote No side has the capacity to deliver the person-to-person grass-roots campaign it says it wants to run. Don’t be surprised if someone calls or knocks on your door this fall and asks if you can spare a moment to talk about love.
Check out the article in its entirety at the Star Tribune.
Last week, I shared a story from MPR that spoke about the strong support marriage amendments have received from the African American community. In response to the post, some have asked the question, “Why would we single out the African American community, when we don’t do that with other groups?” In response, I would say that analysis does indeed single out many groups’ level of support. Polling numbers are sliced and diced in a plethora of ways. When we do that, we continue to see common trends around the support for marriage amendments:
- Higher support among older Americans
- Higher support among Republicans
- Slightly higher support from males
- Higher support from those that have less education
- Higher support from those that identify as Catholic
Now, does this mean that all Republicans will vote for the amendment? Of course not! Thankfully, we’ve got many Republicans on our side (we’d have no hope of defeating this thing in Minnesota if we didn’t). Similarly, it does not mean that all African Americans will vote for the amendment either. However, ignoring trends from previous elections because we don’t want anyone to feel singled out is a sure way to lose this election.
We need to talk about what the reality is and find ways to influence those voters. Just the other day, the Washington Post shared the story titled: “Obama and same-sex marriage: Will his stance cost him the African-American vote?” In the article, the Post shares the words of Reverend William Owens, a minister and vocal opponent of marriage equality:
Claiming to speak for thousands, he connected the prevalence of same-sex marriage to the collapse of the African-American family. And he threatened the president with a widespread revolt by black voters on Election Day. “He has not done a smart thing,” Owens said.
The Post references how other news organizations had picked up the story with headlines like, “Obama’s support for gay marriage ‘might cost him the election’” and then goes on to talk about how that reality is not a likely outcome.
However, if pre-polling and exit polling numbers are any indication, it is likely that many African Americans will vote for the marriage amendment (along with Republicans, males, older voters, less-educated voters and others). The question that we need to ask is: How do we make sure we amp up the conversations we’re having with ALL of these folks.
I still don’t fully understand how anyone (regardless of who it may be) could vote to limit the freedoms of another group within the state constitution.
Note: As I find analysis of polling numbers, I’ll continue to post. It’s not to single out any group (Republicans, Catholics, African Americans, etc.), but rather to highlight where we may need to do some extra work. If you’ve been following me since the beginning, you understand that my approach through all of this centers around two things: 1) Defeating this amendment and 2) Love. We all need to come together and figure out how we defeat this thing, and sometimes, that’s going to require us to have some uncomfortable conversations. Through all of this though, we need to remember why we’re fighting: because of love. Together, I think we can beat this thing in Minnesota, but make no mistake, it’s going to require a lot of work to do it. I hope you’re with me.
This past Thursday, I blogged about a new poll which finds that a majority of Minnesotans will vote in favor of the mean-spirited marriage amendment on the ballot this NOvember. I’m not going to lie, these numbers are disheartening.
Attached is a graph from SurveyUSA that shows the breakdown of votes.
Sadly, there’s an awful lot of red on that graph. For a complete breakdown of the numbers, check out the detailed analysis on the SurveyUSA page.
Our opponents have the cultural elite, wealthy contributors, and editorial writers, but we have voters on our side. We are particularly pleased with the lead the amendment enjoys among Independent voters and the large percentage of Democratic voters who support the amendment.
John Helmberger, Chairman, Minnesota for Marriage
Source: The New American
Helmberger’s response to a new poll conducted jointly by SurveyUSA and KSTP that found a 15 point spread between those who support the mean-spirited marriage amendment and those who oppose it. Read more about the poll in my blog post from yesterday.