In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back 8 weeks, SurveyUSA has never shown the Minnesota Marriage Amendment being defeated. Until today.
ABC Affiliate, KSTP, Minneapolis
Last night, Public Policy Polling released polling numbers showing that 52% of Minnesotans opposed the amendment with 45% in support.
Tonight, KSTP/SurveyUSA release their final poll before the election and the NO side leads with 48% of voters opposed to amending the constitution to limit the rights of committed same-sex couples.
That’s right: A second independent poll has found that Minnesotans oppose amending the constitution to limit the rights of a subset of citizens.
With that said, it’s going to be nail-biting close. According to KSTP:
The margin is small, and could just be statistical noise, but at the wire, SurveyUSA has “No” at 48%, “Yes” at 47%, well within the survey’s possible sources of error, but significant enough to warrant a mention. In SurveyUSA’s two most recent polls, Yes led No by a single point. Now the dress shoe is on the other foot, with No leading Yes by a single point.
With less than 48 hours until Minnesota polls close, we can’t let up. If you can help with get-out-the-vote efforts, please sign up here.
Minnesota, this is going to be close. EVERY single vote is going to matter in this election. Help make history by saying NO on Tuesday!
The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.
Note: For additional information, check out the detailed breakdown of the poll.
Our final Minnesota poll finds 45% of voters support the amendment to ban gay marriage, 52% of voters oppose it
Source: Public Policy Polling Tweet
There’s no additional detail posted on the Public Policy Polling site, however, I wanted to share this tweet immediately. As soon as the details of the poll are posted, I’ll share via the blog.
Last month’s poll from PPP showed that 49% of Minnesotans opposed amending the Minnesota constitution to limit the freedom of marriage with 46% of Minnesotans supporting it. Tonight’s numbers reflect a trend we’ve been seeing over the past year; the support for equality continues to increase here in the land of 10,000 lakes!
Here’s the actual tweet from Public Policy Polling:
With just days before polls open, Minnesota, it’s going to be close! We need EVERY single person to show up on Tuesday to ensure we make these numbers come true.
The momentum is in our favor; we can be the first state to defeat one of these amendments! But the only way we’ll do that is if each of us continues to talk about this amendment, tell our stories and encourage Vote No supporters to show up at the polls!
See you Tuesday!
Some good news for my friends in Washington State tonight: The latest poll from Public Policy Polling shows that the majority of Washington supports equality.
Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .54%
Illegal ………………… .40%
Not sure …………….. . 5%
Even with the margin of error, it appears that Washington residents will reaffirm a decision made earlier this year to legalize same-sex marriage in the state.
Of course, now is not the time to let up! With 3 days to go, all states facing amendment battles on marriage must ensure a strong get out the vote effort.
To my friends in Washington State, good luck!!
While it is certainly not yet time to break out the champagne, the latest polling numbers from Public Policy Polling are trending in the Vote NO direction. In numbers released yesterday, PPP shows that 49% of voters are opposed to amending the Minnesota state constitution to limit the rights of committed same-sex couples. This is a 2% increase in amendment opposition since PPP conducted their last poll in September.
Amendment supporters still have a very strong showing with 46% of likely voters in Minnesota set to vote yes to limit the freedom to marry (the October poll shows a decrease in support of two percentage points). 5% of voters are still undecided; this is unchanged from the September poll.
With all of that said, we know that amendment support has always been underrepresented in pre-polling. Plus, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%, we still have work to do. Here are three quick ideas on how you can help maintain our Vote NO momentum:
- Update your Facebook cover graphic to let your friends kNOw why defeating this amendment is important to you
- Sign up to call the 49% of voters that are on our side to remind them the importance of getting out to vote on election day
- Tell your story one more time. If we defeat this amendment, it will because of YOU
With less than 30 days to go, please help make a difference today!
Note: This latest PPP survey was conducted between October 5-8 with 937 respondents. For the full report, click here.
That’s the headline of a recent Public Policy Polling poll on the Minnesota marriage amendment. According to PPP:
PPP’s newest poll on the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in Minnesota finds it virtually tied, with 48% of voters supporting the ban to 47% who oppose it. In January we found 48/44 support for the ban, while in June we found 49/43 opposition. It looks like a toss up.
While support for the amendment has remained fairly consistent, opposition continues to rise. However, it is still important to note that at no point in polling has opposition surpassed support.
PPP provides the following breakdown of support/opposition:
Women (52/41), Democrats (78/16), and voters under 45 (50/45) all oppose the ban. Men (55/41), Republicans (80/17), independents (51/42), and seniors (53/40) all support it in greater numbers though.
Additionally, the poll finds that 5% of voters are still unsure. With a +/- 3.4% margin, the amendment race continues to be tight, at least from a polling perspective.
For additional content around polling, check out the following blog posts:
- Marriage amendment poised to pass (9/11/2012)
- Undecided voters (9/6/2012)
- Amendment support strong with various groups of voters (8/7/2012)
- Majority of Minnesotans voting for inequality? (7/31/2012)
- Minnesota marriage amendment to pass? (7/26/2012)
I’ve posted several articles about what polls are saying and what it may mean for the election this fall. A poll out in early June showed “growing opposition” to the constitutional amendment.
The poll results, conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP), showed 49 percent of Minnesota voters oppose the amendment, while 43 percent support it. While this is good news, I do have some question around how accurate these results may be (just four months ago in the same poll, 44 percent were against the amendment, while 48 percent were in support – that’s almost a swap in a very short time).
Polls oftentimes are misleading going into a vote on this topic. Prop 8 in California was supposed to “lose decisively” yet voters passed it with a 52-48 margin. Hence, while I’m encouraged by this news (as we all should be), it is much too soon to celebrate. Let’s put some additional spread between those numbers in the next poll by having the conversation, talking to friends and co-workers and helping family members understand that this is a civil rights issue about equality.
Come on Minnesota, I know you’re up for it!